Global warming brings busy year for UN disaster teams

The United Nations office that sends expert teams around the world to help governments deal with natural disasters was busier than ever in Latin America this year, a fact it at least partially blames on climate change.
The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, or OCHA, said in a statement that a record nine missions were dispatched to the region during 2007, among 14 sent around the globe, itself a higher than usual number.

Map Showing the effects of Climate Change in 2050

Of the 14 global missions, 70% were in response to hurricanes and floods, the OCHA statement

said, calling this "possibly a glimpse of the shape of things to come given the reality of climate change." In Latin America the proportion was even higher.

There were the rains in November that left most of the southern Mexican state of Tabasco under water for weeks, including large parts of the city of Villahermosa.
In October, Tropical Storm Noel triggered flash floods in the Dominican Republic that killed dozens. In September, Honduras faced the category five Hurricane Felix, just as Jamaica and Belize had been battered by the similarly strong Hurricane Dean the month before.
In South America, Uruguay suffered its worst flooding in 50 years and hundreds of thousands of Bolivians were inundated and their crops ruined at the beginning of the year, warranting two UN missions alone.

The remaining UN disaster team sent to the region went to help with the relief effort following an 8.0-magnitude earthquake along the Peruvian coast.
There were also other significant disasters which did not receive UN attention because the teams were not invited in by the local government. Hurricane Felix caused its greatest devastation in Nicaragua, but the UN mission was only sent to neighbouring Honduras.
"The number of disasters is increasing and it is connected to climate change but we cannot at this juncture directly link any one incident," OCHA spokesperson Stephanie Bunker told the Guardian. "More studies will have to be done before that is possible."

In 2006, the number of missions to Latin America was just two. In 2005 it was five.
Previously the highest number of missions to the region was the eight sent in 1998 after Hurricanes Mitch devastated Central America and Hurricane Georges ripped through the Caribbean.

Since its establishment in 1993, the OCHA has sent 167 disaster assessment missions. The largest number were in response to the tsunami and earthquake that killed around 230,000 people in 12 Indian Ocean nations on Boxing Day 2004. This year, aside from the missions to Latin America, the UN also sent teams to Madagascar, Pakistan, and Ghana in response to floods, as well as to the Solomon Islands following an earthquake and tsunami, and to Laos to help with disaster preparedness efforts.

Source: Jo Tuckman in Mexico CityThursday December 27, 2007 Guardian Unlimited

A 'Gizmo' That Saves Lives After Disasters

ScienceDaily (Dec. 24, 2007) — When Javier Rodriguez Molina visited the Atocha Train Station Memorial in Madrid last summer, the Barcelona native felt a great sadness for the victims of the 11 March 2004 Madrid train bombings. But he also felt some hope that his advanced emergency technology work at University of California, San Diego can some day save lives in similar disasters.

Police, firefighters and other emergency workers responding to natural or manmade disasters may someday save more lives with the help of “Gizmo,” an advanced mobile wireless communications device.
Rodríguez is Gizmo’s lead gadgeteer. He’s an electrical engineering graduate student and programmer analyst at UC San Diego's California Institute for Telecommunications and Information Technology (Calit2), one of the most advanced, interdisciplinary research institutes in the world. "Gizmo," which looks like a cross between a remote-controlled toy truck and a lunar landing vehicle, may eventually transform disaster response by collecting and transmitting in real time any information that emergency personnel need via any communications system they're using.
“In almost any emergency, the most important thing is immediate, accurate information,” Rodriguez said. “Gizmo will eventually be able to go anywhere on its own and send back in real time whatever information you might need."
From the Circuits Lab at Calit2, Rodriguez hopes to build many varieties of Gizmos -- even one that flies. The devices could go anywhere that it's too dangerous for humans, including urban emergencies such as hostage situations, terrorist attacks or a building collapse. The current Gizmo is the size of a remote-controlled toy truck. But future models may be alternately much smaller (so they could enter a hostage situation without being detected), or much bigger, such as a full sized truck, which could penetrate disaster situations even in the harshest conditions, such as a hurricane.
"Using technology to try to save lives is the most important thing for me now," Rodriguez said. "I'm taking part in work that can make people more secure by helping police, helping firefighters, helping anybody who is responding to a dangerous situation."
Working under Ramesh Rao, an internationally recognized expert in emergency technology and director of the UC San Diego division of Calit2, Rodriguez is now guiding a team of engineering undergraduates who are building Gizmos, which create their own wireless network bubble wherever they go. One Gizmo can create a wireless network 200 meters in diameter; several working in conjunction can create an exponentially larger network.
The mission of Calit2 is to apply the most advanced technology to real-world problems, and produce solutions that people can actually use. One of the biggest problems for responders in any emergency situation is losing communications with one another and not knowing what's going on inside a dangerous area. So, Rodriguez and his colleagues concentrated on building Gizmo to collect accurate information in emergency situations and transmit it back to responders immediately using whatever communications system is operating.
The data collected by Gizmos can be sent back via wireless network connection to virtually anywhere, whether it's a police command station a block away or a research laboratory on the other side of the world. Gizmos can be controlled by cell phone, laptop or a gaming joystick hooked to a computer. The platform on each Gizmo can be mounted with any kind of device - high definition cameras; super sensitive microphones; sensors that detect dangerous gases, radiation or high heat levels; or a remote controlled arm that can collect samples. Then, that information can be sent to any communications device - cell phones, lap tops, Bluetooth, or whatever type of wireless transmitter emergency personnel are using. If one communications system fails, emergency personnel can switch to another. Like any wireless Internet system, Gizmo can send information through walls or other obstructions.
Another goal for Rodriguez is to make sure that Gizmo is relatively cheap -- under $1,000 - and constructed with many easy-to-replace parts so that they can be mass produced. That way, almost any police, fire and other emergency agencies could buy them off the shelf. If one Gizmo is destroyed in the line of duty, it can be easily replaced.
For now, Gizmos are wheeled vehicles, but Rodriguez and his colleagues already are building one with tank treads so it can go up stairs or over curbs and rocks. The opportunities for Gizmo are immense. Rodriguez envisions using them at delicate archeological ruins, underground cave-ins or even for routine security patrols.
"People see Gizmo and immediately think of a new idea for what it can do," he said. "I'm sure it has important uses that we haven't even thought of yet."

Resource:http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2007/12/071217141422.htm

Without Its Insulating Ice Cap, Arctic Surface Waters Warm To As Much As 5 C Above Average

ScienceDaily (Dec. 17, 2007) — Record-breaking amounts of ice-free water have deprived the Arctic of more of its natural "sunscreen" than ever in recent summers. The effect is so pronounced that sea surface temperatures rose to 5 C above average in one place this year, a high never before observed, says the oceanographer who has compiled the first-ever look at average sea surface temperatures for the region.

Such superwarming of surface waters can affect how thick ice grows back in the winter, as well as its ability to withstand melting the next summer, according to Michael Steele, an oceanographer with the University of Washington's Applied Physics Laboratory. Indeed, since September, the end of summer in the Arctic, winter freeze-up in some areas is two months later than usual.
The extra ocean warming also might be contributing to some changes on land, such as previously unseen plant growth in the coastal Arctic tundra, if heat coming off the ocean during freeze-up is making its way over land, says Steele, who spoke December 12 at the American Geophysical Union meeting in San Francisco.
He is lead author of "Arctic Ocean surface warming trends over the past 100 years," accepted for publication in AGU's Geophysical Research Letters. Co-authors are physicist Wendy Ermold and research scientist Jinlun Zhang, both of the UW Applied Physics Laboratory.
"Warming is particularly pronounced since 1995, and especially since 2000," the authors write. The spot where waters were 5 C above average was in the region just north of the Chakchi Sea. The historical average temperature there is -1 C -- remember that the salt in ocean water keeps it liquid at temperatures that would cause fresh water to freeze. This year water in that area warmed to 4 C, for a 5-degree change from the average.
That general area, the part of the ocean north of Alaska and Eastern Siberia that includes the Bering Strait and Chukchi Sea, experienced the greatest summer warming. Temperatures for that region were generally 3.5 C warmer than historical averages and 1.5 C warmer than the historical maximum.
Such widespread warming in those areas and elsewhere in the Arctic is probably the result of having increasing amounts of open water in the summer that readily absorb the sun's rays, Steele says. Hard, white ice, on the other hand, can work as a kind of sunscreen for the waters below, reflecting rather than absorbing sunlight. The warming also may be partly caused by increasing amounts of warmer water coming from the Pacific Ocean, something scientists have noted in recent years.
The Arctic was primed for more open water since the early 1990s as the sea-ice cover has thinned, due to a warming atmosphere and more frequent strong winds sweeping ice out of the Arctic Ocean via Fram Strait into the Atlantic Ocean where the ice melts. The wind effect was particularly strong in the summer of 2007.
Now the situation could be self-perpetuating, Steele says. For example, he calculates that having more heat in surface waters in recent years means 23 to 30 inches less ice will grow in the winter than formed in 1965. Since sea ice typically grows about 80 inches in a winter, that is a significant fraction of ice that's going missing, he says.
Then too, higher sea surface temperatures can delay the start of freeze-up because the extra heat must be discharged from the upper ocean before ice can form. "The effect on net winter growth would probably be negligible for a delay of several weeks, but could be substantial for delays of several months," the authors write.
The work is funded by the National Science Foundation.

Adapted from materials provided by University of Washington.

Source: http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2007/12/071212201236.htm

Top 11 Warmest Years On Record Have All Been In Last 13 Years

ScienceDaily (Dec. 13, 2007) — The decade of 1998-2007 is the warmest on record, according to data sources obtained by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). The global mean surface temperature for 2007 is currently estimated at 0.41°C/0.74°F above the 1961-1990 annual average of 14.00°C/57.20°F.

The University of East Anglia and the Met Office's Hadley Centre have released preliminary global temperature figures for 2007, which show the top 11 warmest years all occurring in the last 13 years. The provisional global figure for 2007 using data from January to November, currently places the year as the seventh warmest on records dating back to 1850.
Other remarkable global climatic events recorded so far in 2007 include record-low Arctic sea ice extent, which led to first recorded opening of the Canadian Northwest Passage; the relatively small Antarctic Ozone Hole; development of La Niña in the central and eastern Equatorial Pacific; and devastating floods, drought and storms in many places around the world.
The preliminary information for 2007 is based on climate data up to the end of November from networks of land-based weather stations, ships and buoys, as well as satellites. The data are continually collected and disseminated by the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHS) of WMO’s 188 Members and several collaborating research institutions. Final updates and figures for 2007 will be published in March 2008 in the annual WMO brochure for the Statement on the Status of the Global Climate.
WMO’s global temperature analyses are based on two different sources. One is the combined dataset maintained by both the Hadley Centre of the UK Meteorological Office, and the Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, UK, which at this stage ranked 2007 as the seventh warmest on record. The other dataset is maintained by the US Department of Commerce’s National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), which indicated that 2007 is likely to be the fifth warmest on record.
Since the start of the 20th century, the global average surface temperature has risen by 0.74°C. But this rise has not been continuous. The linear warming trend over the last 50 years (0.13°C per decade) is nearly twice that for the last 100 years.
According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s 4th Assessment (Synthesis) Report, 2007, “warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global average sea level.”
2007 global temperatures have been averaged separately for both hemispheres. Surface temperatures for the northern hemisphere are likely to be the second warmest on record, at 0.63°C above the 30-year mean (1961-90) of 14.6°C/58.3°F. The southern hemisphere temperature is 0.20°C higher than the 30-year average of 13.4°C/56.1°F, making it the ninth warmest in the instrumental record since 1850.
January 2007 was the warmest January in the global average temperature record at 12.7°C/54.9°F, compared to the 1961-1990 January long-term average of 12.1°C/53.8°F.
Regional temperature anomalies
2007 started with record breaking temperature anomalies throughout the world. In parts of Europe, winter and spring ranked amongst the warmest ever recorded, with anomalies of more than 4°C above the long-term monthly averages for January and April.
Extreme high temperatures occurred in much of Western Australia from early January to early March, with February temperatures more than 5°C above average.
Two extreme heat waves affected south-eastern Europe in June and July, breaking previous records with daily maximum temperatures exceeding 40°C/104°F in some locations, including up to 45°C/113°F in Bulgaria. Dozens of people died and fire-fighters battled blazes devastating thousands of hectares of land. A severe heat wave occurred across the southern United States of America during much of August with more than 50 deaths attributed to excessive heat. August to September 2007 was extremely warm in parts of Japan, setting a new national record of absolute maximum temperature of 40.9°/105.6°F on 16 August.
In contrast, Australia recorded its coldest ever June with the mean temperature dropping to 1.5°C below normal. South America experienced an unusually cold winter (June-August), bringing winds, blizzards and rare snowfall to various provinces with temperatures falling to -22°C/-7.6°F in Argentina and -18°C/-0.4°F in Chile in early July.
Prolonged drought
Across North America, severe to extreme drought was present across large parts of the western U.S. and Upper Midwest, including southern Ontario/Canada, for much of 2007. More than three-quarters of the Southeast U.S. was in drought from mid-summer into December, but heavy rainfall led to an end of drought in the southern Plains.
In Australia, while conditions were not as severely dry as in 2006, long term drought meant water resources remained extremely low in many areas. Below average rainfall over the densely populated and agricultural regions resulted in significant crop and stock losses, as well as water restrictions in most major cities.
China experienced its worst drought in a decade, affecting nearly 40 million hectares of farmland. Tens of millions of people suffered from water restrictions.
Flooding and intense storms
Flooding affected many African countries in 2007. In February, Mozambique experienced its worst flooding in six years, killing dozens, destroying thousands of homes and flooding 80,000 hectares of crops in the Zambezi valley.
In Sudan, torrential rains caused flash floods in many areas in June/July, affecting over 410,000 people, including 200,000 left homeless. The strong southwesterly monsoon resulted in one of the heaviest July-September rainfall periods, triggering widespread flash floods affecting several countries in West Africa, Central Africa and parts of the Greater Horn of Africa. Some 1.5 million people were affected and hundreds of thousands homes destroyed.
In Bolivia, flooding in January-February affected nearly 200,000 people and 70,000 hectares of cropland. Strong storms brought heavy rain that caused extreme flooding in the littoral region of Argentina in late March/early April. In early May, Uruguay was hit by its worst flooding since 1959, with heavy rain producing floods that affected more than 110,000 people and severely damaged crops and buildings. Triggered by storms, massive flooding in Mexico in early November destroyed the homes of half a million people and seriously affected the country’s oil industry.
In Indonesia, massive flooding on Java in early February killed dozens and covered half of the city of Jakarta by up to 3.7 metres of water. Heavy rains in June ravaged areas across southern China, with flooding and landslides affecting over 13.5 million people and killing more than 120. Monsoon-related extreme rainfall events caused the worst flooding in years in parts of South Asia. About 25 million people were affected in the region, especially in India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Nepal. Thousands lost their lives. However, rainfall during the Indian summer monsoon season (June-September) for India was, generally, near normal (105% of the long-term average), but with marked differences in the distribution of rainfall in space and time.
A powerful storm system, Kyrill, affected much of northern Europe during 17-18 January 2007 with torrential rains and winds gusting up to 170km/h. There were at least 47 deaths across the region, with disruptions in electric supply affecting tens of thousands during the storm.
England and Wales recorded its wettest May-July period since records began in 1766, receiving 406 mm of rain compared to the previous record of 349 mm in 1789. Extensive flooding in the region killed nine and caused more than US$6 billion in damages.
Development of La Niña
The brief El Niño event of late 2006 quickly dissipated in January 2007, and La Niña conditions became well established across the central and eastern Equatorial Pacific in the latter half of 2007.
In addition to La Niña, unusual sea surface temperature patterns with cooler than normal values across the north of Australia to the Indian Ocean, and warmer than normal values in the Western Indian Ocean, were recorded. These are believed to have modified the usual La Niña impacts in certain regions around the world.
The current La Niña is expected to continue into the first quarter of 2008 at least.
Devastating tropical cyclones
Twenty-four named tropical storms developed in the North-West Pacific during 2007, below the annual average of 27. Fourteen storms were classified as typhoons, equalling the annual average. Tropical cyclones affected millions in south-east Asia, with typhoons Pabuk, Krosa, Lekima and tropical storms like Peipah among the severest.
During the 2007 Atlantic Hurricane season, 14 named storms occurred, compared to the annual average of 12, with 6 being classified as hurricanes, equalling the average. For the first time since 1886, two category 5 hurricanes (Dean and Felix) made landfall in the same season.
In February, due to tropical cyclone Gamède, a new worldwide rainfall record was set in French La Reunion with 3,929 mm measured within three days.
In June, cyclone Gonu made landfall in Oman, affecting more than 20,000 people and killing 50, before reaching the Islamic Republic of Iran. There is no record of a tropical cyclone hitting Iran since 1945.
On 15 November, tropical cyclone Sidr made landfall in Bangladesh, generating winds of up to 240 km/h and torrential rains. More than 8.5 million people were affected and over 3,000 died. Nearly 1.5 million houses were damaged or destroyed. Often hit by cyclones, Bangladesh has developed a network of cyclone shelters and a storm early-warning system, which significantly reduced casualties.
Australia’s 2006/2007 tropical season was unusually quiet, with only five tropical cyclones recorded, equalling the lowest number observed since at least 1943-44.
Relatively small Antarctic ozone hole
The 2007 Antarctic ozone hole was relatively small due to mild stratosphere winter temperatures. Since 1998, only the 2002 and 2004 ozone holes were smaller. In 2007, the ozone hole reached a maximum of 25 million square kms in mid-September, compared to 29 million square kms in the record years of 2000 and 2006. The ozone mass deficit reached 28 megatonnes on 23 September, compared to more than 40 megatonnes in the record year of 2006.
Record-low Arctic sea ice extent opened the Northwest Passage
Following the Arctic sea ice melt season, which ends annually in September at the end of the northern summer, the average “sea ice extent” was 4.28 million square kms, the lowest on record. The “sea ice extent” at September 2007 was 39% below the long-term 1979-2000 average, and 23% below the previous record set just two years ago in September 2005.For the first time in recorded history, the disappearance of ice across parts of the Arctic opened the Canadian Northwest Passage for about five weeks starting 11 August. Nearly 100 voyages in normally ice-blocked waters sailed without the threat of ice. The September rate of sea ice decline since 1979 is now approximately 10% per decade, or 72,000 square kms per year.
Sea level rise continues
The sea level continued to rise at rates substantially above the average for the 20th century of about 1.7 mm per year. Measurements show that the 2007 global averaged sea level is about 20 cm higher than the 1870 estimate. Modern satellite measurements show that since 1993 global averaged sea level has been rising at about 3 mm per year.
Global 10 Warmest Years Mean Global temperature (°C) (anomaly with respect to 1961-1990)
1998 0.52
2005 0.48
2003 0.46
2002 0.46
2004 0.43
2006 0.42
2007(Jan-Nov) 0.41
2001 0.40
1997 0.36
1995 0.28
UK 10 Warmest Years Mean UK Temperature (°C) (anomaly with respect to 1971-2000)
2006 +1.15
2007 (Jan to 10th Dec) + 1.10
2003 + 0.92
2004 + 0.89
2002 + 0.89
2005 + 0.87
1990 + 0.83
1997 + 0.82
1949 + 0.80
1999 + 0.78

Adapted from materials provided by World Meteorological Organization.

Source: http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2007/12/071213101419.htm

Natural Climate Changes Can Intensify Hurricanes More Efficiently Than Global Warming

ScienceDaily (Dec. 13, 2007) — Natural climate variations, which tend to involve localized changes in sea surface temperature, may have a larger effect on hurricane activity than the more uniform patterns of

In the debate over the effect of global warming on hurricanes, it is generally assumed that warmer oceans provide a more favorable environment for hurricane development and intensification. However, several other factors, such as atmospheric temperature and moisture, also come into play.
Drs. Gabriel A. Vecchi of the NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory and Brian J. Soden from the University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine & Atmospheric Science analyzed climate model projections and observational reconstructions to explore the relationship between changes in sea surface temperature and tropical cyclone 'potential intensity' - a measure that provides an upper limit on cyclone intensity.
They found that warmer oceans do not alone produce a more favorable environment for storms because the effect of remote warming can counter, and sometimes overwhelm, the effect of local surface warming. "Warming near the storm acts to increase the potential intensity of hurricanes, whereas warming away from the storms acts to decrease their potential intensity," Vecchi said.
Their study found that long-term changes in potential intensity are more closely related to the regional pattern of warming than to local ocean temperature change. Regions that warm more than the tropical average are characterized by increased potential intensity, and vice versa. "A surprising result is that the current potential intensity for Atlantic hurricanes is about average, despite the record high temperatures of the Atlantic Ocean over the past decade." Soden said. "This is due to the compensating warmth in other ocean basins."
"As we try to understand the future changes in hurricane intensity, we must look beyond changes in Atlantic Ocean temperature. If the Atlantic warms more slowly than the rest of the tropical oceans, we would expect a decrease in the upper limit on hurricane intensity," Vecchi added. "This is an interesting piece of the puzzle."
"While these results challenge some current notions regarding the link between climate change and hurricane activity, they do not contradict the widespread scientific consensus on the reality of global warming," Soden noted.
The journal article is entitled "Effect of Remote Sea Surface Temperature Change on Tropical Cyclone Potential Intensity."

Adapted from materials provided by University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine & Atmospheric Science.

Source: http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2007/12/071212201954.htm

Climate Conflict: Study Shows Climate Change May Trigger Wars and Population Decline

The study, published November 19 in the early edition of the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), revealed that as temperatures decreased centuries ago during a period called the Little Ice Age, the number of wars increased, famine occurred and the population declined.
Data on past climates may help accurately predict and design strategies for future large and persistent climate changes, but acknowledging the historic social impact of these severe events is an important step toward that goal, according to the study’s authors.
“Even though temperatures are increasing now, the same resulting conflicts may occur since we still greatly depend on the land as our food source,” said Peter Brecke, associate professor in the Georgia Institute of Technology’s Sam Nunn School of International Affairs and co-author of the study.
This new study expands previous work by Associate Professor David Zhang of the University of Hong Kong and lead author of the study.
“My previous research just focused on Eastern China. This current study covers a much larger spatial area and the conclusions from the current research could be considered general principles,” said Zhang.
University of Hong Kong news release
Brecke, Zhang and colleagues in Hong Kong, China and the United Kingdom perceived a possible connection between temperature change and wars because changes in climate affect water supplies, growing seasons and land fertility, prompting food shortages. These shortages could lead to conflict – local uprisings, government destabilization and invasions from neighboring regions – and population decline due to bloodshed during the wars and starvation.
To study whether changes in temperature affected the number of wars, the researchers examined the time period between 1400 and 1900. This period recorded the lowest average global temperatures around 1450, 1650 and 1820, each separated by slight warming intervals.
The researchers collected war data from multiple sources, including a database of 4,500 wars worldwide that Brecke began developing in 1995 with funding from the U.S. Institute of Peace. They also used climate change records that paleoclimatologists reconstructed by consulting historical documents and examining indicators of temperature change like tree rings, as well as oxygen isotopes in ice cores and coral skeletons.
Results showed a cyclic pattern of turbulent periods when temperatures were low followed by tranquil ones when temperatures were higher. The number of wars per year worldwide during cold centuries was almost twice that of the mild 18th century.
The study also showed population declines following each high war peak, according to population data Brecke assembled. The population growth rate of the Northern Hemisphere was elevated from 1400-1600, despite a short cooling period beginning in the middle of the 15th century. However, during the colder 17th century, Europe and Asia experienced more wars of great magnitude and population declines.
In China, the population plummeted 43 percent between 1620 and 1650. Then, a dramatic increase in population occurred from 1650 until a cooling period beginning in 1800 caused a worldwide demographic shock.
The researchers examined whether these average temperature differences of less than one degree Celsius were enough to cause food shortages. By assuming that agricultural production decreases triggered price increases, they showed that when grain prices reached a certain level, wars erupted. The ecological stress on agricultural production triggered by climate change did in fact induce population shrinkages, according to Brecke.
Global temperatures are expected to rise in the future and the world’s growing population may be unable to adequately adapt to the ecological changes, according to Brecke.
“The warmer temperatures are probably good for a while, but beyond some level plants will be stressed,” explained Brecke. “With more droughts and a rapidly growing population, it is going to get harder and harder to provide food for everyone and thus we should not be surprised to see more instances of starvation and probably more cases of hungry people clashing over scarce food and water.”

Source: http://www.gtresearchnews.gatech.edu/newsrelease/climate-war.htm

NGOS IN AFRICA

JOHANNESBURG:
'Let's have a test," challenged a colleague recently in Rwanda, "as to what NGO Landcruiser next arrives in the parking lot. "It was no joke. The parking lot of any upmarket restaurant in any African capital speaks volumes about the neo-imperial game being played out in Africa.
Four-wheel-drive after four-wheel-drive emblazoned with the logo of some donor agency or children's charity jostle for space.

The humanitarians are not hard to spot in person either. Usually white, generally loud, they prefer a shabby-chic uniform of T-shirt, jeans and sandals. But they are more powerful and usually less benign than they appear.

Sitting recently in the Café Bourbon in the smart, new shopping precinct of Kigali opened my eyes (and ears) to some of the implications. "We must just transfer the $8.5 million," rasped the American working for a prominent NGO.

Such money grants them considerable power and influence. The average Rwandan earns $240 per year. The government's annual budget is $650 million. Recent events in Chad over alleged orphan smuggling by an NGO illustrate if nothing else the degree of suspicion such relative power produces. Those sympathetic to the (mostly) young people performing humanitarian roles in Africa argue that they bring much needed skills to deprived Africans. The defense normally adds that they are giving up promising careers and suffering hardship in doing so. What they don't emphasize is the less obvious harm they do. Those previously rendering imperial service suffered hardship, disease and violence. There were no emergency medevacs then, no media to dramatize their service, and no pop stars to campaign on their behalf. And even if these forefathers and mothers promoted polices politically distasteful today, they were more accountable than those in this new quasi-colonial service. The imperial agents of old had at least to answer to parliaments and taxpayers, not self-appointed boards of self-important thought-leaders. But this is not the worst of it. Recently Paris Hilton announced that she was going to be really brave and travel to Rwanda. "I'm scared, yeah," she said. "I've heard it's really dangerous. I've never been on a trip like this before. "She was reportedly planning to "leave her mark" - just like many others before her, supposedly helping Africa while helping themselves. Once there she might have considered a visit to the local Millennium Development Village, an idea to help Africa formulated by the Columbia professor Jeffrey Sachs. Celebrity airhead might meet celebrity economist.

Explaining what motivated her trip, Paris said "There's so much need in that area, and I feel like if I go, it will bring more attention to what people can do to help." If it eventually happens, hopefully the hotel heiress' visit (now officially rescheduled) will be more successful than the village concept by which Sachs wanted to prove his theory that if you give a small unit enough resources then the inhabitants will prosper, a micro-prototype to the "more aid equals African development" thesis. The cost of the "services" rendered by such foreigners is, as ever, borne by Africans. Their actions, fundraising techniques and prominence strengthen the perception that Africa is unable to help itself - both inside and, especially given foreign NGO funding requirements, outside the country. It perpetuates perceptions of helplessness and a victim mentality. At a time when many have realized that African development depends on Africans determining their own policies and making those choices, such actions transfer power and emphasis away from the continent's decision-makers.

Portraying Africa as an object of pity also ignores the very real progress the continent - now in its fourth straight year of six percent GDP growth - has made in ending conflict and raising living standards. What Africa needs is extraordinary economic growth, not extraordinary pity. That is why eventually Africa will tire of this new generation of imperialists, just as it rejected the last lot.

Greg Mills heads the Johannesburg-based Brenthurst Foundation.

Source: http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/11/02/opinion/edmills.php

Humanitarian Assistance Often Lacks Needs Assessment

ScienceDaily (Nov. 10, 2007) — The first academic thesis in Sweden on international health assistance in disaster zones is to be presented at the medical university Karolinska Institutet. In his thesis, Dr Johan von Schreeb shows that international assistance is often sent to disaster areas without any prior needs assessment having been made of the affected population.

Dr von Schreeb has carried out needs assessments in a number of disaster situations. He examined the need for international medical assistance after the terrorist action in a school in Beslan, Russia, in 2004, and the low-intensity conflict in the Palestinian territories in 2002. He also studied the use of Foreign Field Hospitals in the natural (sudden impact) disaster zones of Bam (Iran) in 2003, Haiti and Aceh (Indonesia) in 2004 and Pakistan (Kashmir) 2005).

What he discovered was a lack of understanding of people's needs subsequent to the disaster and that international assistance takes inadequate account of existing resources. International field hospitals specialising in life-saving trauma care were dispatched to four areas of natural disaster. Not one arrived within the 48 hours in which lives could still be saved.

If appropriate assistance is to be provided, organisers need access to information about the disaster, the affected area, the size of the population, the socio-economic situation and the available local and regional resources. International donors of humanitarian assistance have jointly decided to distribute the money on the basis of local needs.

There are well-described methods of making needs assessments, but the results are too rarely used. One of Dr von Schreeb's sub-studies examined the extent to which Sida took account of needs assessments in its decisions to fund humanitarian health projects in 2003. Only one third of these decisions contained information about the size of the population to be helped or other factors reflecting their health needs. "My interpretation of this is that it's difficult to provide funding on the basis of needs," says Dr von Schreeb. "Other procedures are needed for having needs govern funding decisions."

During his time as medical coordinator for Medecins Sans Frontieres (Doctors without Borders) in Kashmir, Dr von Schreeb was able to test a new rapid method of gathering needs assessment data in a disaster area. After the 2005 earthquake in Kashmir, he interviewed people at health facilities. His interviewees were geographically representative of the studied population, and the early estimated death and injury toll compared well with the results of a later study in which everyone living in the area was interviewed. "The interviews gave a good, immediate idea of what people needed -- in this case to have their houses repaired before the winter," says Dr von Schreeb.

Thesis: Needs assessments for international humanitarian health assistance in disasters, Johan von Schreeb, Department of Public Health Science, Karolinska Institutet
The public defence of this thesis will be taking place on 23 November 2007 at Karolinska Institutet Campus Solna, Stockholm.

Source: http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2007/11/071109101759.htm

'Ultrasound' Of Earth's Crust Reveals Inner Workings Of A Tsunami Factory

ScienceDaily (Nov. 15, 2007) — Research just announced by a team of U.S. and Japanese geoscientists may help explain why part of the seafloor near the southwest coast of Japan is particularly good at generating devastating tsunamis, such as the 1944 Tonankai event, which killed at least 1,200 people. The findings will help scientists assess the risk of giant tsunamis in other regions of the world.

Geoscientists from The University of Texas at Austin and colleagues used a commercial ship to collect three-dimensional seismic data that reveals the structure of Earth's crust below a region of the Pacific seafloor known as the Nankai Trough. The resulting images are akin to ultrasounds of the human body. The results, published in the journal Science, address a long standing mystery as to why earthquakes below some parts of the seafloor trigger large tsunamis while earthquakes in other regions do not. The 3D seismic images allowed the researchers to reconstruct how layers of rock and sediment have cracked and shifted over time. They found two things that contribute to big tsunamis.

First, they confirmed the existence of a major fault that runs from a region known to unleash earthquakes about 10 kilometers (6 miles) deep right up to the seafloor. When an earthquake happens, the fault allows it to reach up and move the seafloor up or down, carrying a column of water with it and setting up a series of tsunami waves that spread outward.

Second, and most surprising, the team discovered that the recent fault activity, probably including the slip that caused the 1944 event, has shifted to landward branches of the fault, becoming shallower and steeper than it was in the past. "That leads to more direct displacement of the seafloor and a larger vertical component of seafloor displacement that is more effective in generating tsunamis," said Nathan Bangs, senior research scientist at the Institute for Geophysics at The University of Texas at Austin who was co-principal investigator on the research project and co-author on the Science article.

The Nankai Trough is in a subduction zone, an area where two tectonic plates are colliding, pushing one plate down below the other. The grinding of one plate over the other in subduction zones leads to some of the world's largest earthquakes.

In 2002, a team of researchers led by Jin-Oh Park at Japan Marine Science and Technology Center (JAMSTEC) had identified the fault, known as a megathrust or megasplay fault, using less detailed two-dimensional geophysical methods. Based on its location, they suggested a possible link to the 1944 event, but they were unable to determine where faulting has been recently active. "What we can now say is that slip has very recently propagated up to or near to the seafloor, and slip along these thrusts most likely caused the large tsunami during the 1944 Tonankai 8.1 magnitude event," said Bangs. The images produced in this project will be used by scientists in the Nankai Trough Seismogenic Zone Experiment (NanTroSEIZE), an international effort designed to, for the first time, "drill, sample and instrument the earthquake-causing, or seismogenic portion of Earth's crust, where violent, large-scale earthquakes have occurred repeatedly throughout history." "The ultimate goal is to understand what's happening at different margins," said Bangs. "The 2004 Indonesian tsunami was a big surprise. It's still not clear why that earthquake created such a large tsunami. By understanding places like Nankai, we'll have more information and a better approach to looking at other places to determine whether they have potential. And we'll be less surprised in the future."
Bangs' co-principal investigator was Gregory Moore at JAMSTEC in Yokohama and the University of Hawaii, Honolulu. The other co-authors are Emily Pangborn at the Institute for Geophysics at The University of Texas at Austin, Asahiko Taira and Shin'ichi Kuramoto at JAMSTEC and Harold Tobin at the University of Wisconsin, Madison. Funding for the project was provided by the National Science Foundation, Ocean Drilling Program and Japanese Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports and Technology.

Source: http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2007/11/071115164101.htm

Children At Increased Risk From Effects Of Global Climate Change, Report Says

ScienceDaily (Nov. 1, 2007) — There is broad scientific consensus that the earth’s climate is warming, the process is accelerating, and that human activities are very likely the main cause. Children are often most vulnerable to adverse health effects from environmental hazards because they are not fully developed physically and psychologically.

A new American Academy of Pediatrics (AAP) technical report and policy statement, “Global Climate Change and Children’s Health,” outlines the specific ways global climate change impacts child health, and calls on pediatricians to understand the threats to children, anticipate the impact on children’s health, and advocate for strategies that will lessen the effects.
Direct health impacts from global warming include injury and death from more frequent extreme weather events, such as hurricanes and tornados. For children, this can mean post-traumatic stress, loss of caregivers, disrupted education and displacement. Increased climate-sensitive infectious diseases, air pollution-related illness, and heat-related illness and fatalities also are expected.
As the climate changes, the earth’s geography also will change, leading to a host of health risks for kids. Disruptions in the availability of food and water and the displacement of coastal populations can cause malnutrition, vitamin deficiencies and waterborne illness, the statement said.
“This is a call for us to look at how climate change may be impacted by what we do as an organization, what we do in our personal business and what we do in our home life,” said Helen J. Binns, MD, MPH, FAAP, chair of the AAP Committee on Environmental Health.
The statement encourages pediatricians to be role models for minimizing greenhouse gas emissions by making small changes such as switching to compact fluorescent light bulbs, reducing thermostat settings in the winter and increasing settings in the summer, and using cars less. Pediatricians should make sure their patients understand the air quality index, pollen counts and UV measures used in most metropolitan areas. These conversations can be opportunities to introduce the broader issue of climate change and the importance of reducing carbon dioxide emissions.
The statement also advises pediatricians to advocate and support policies that strengthen public transportation, expand green spaces and reward energy efficiency. It’s also crucial that children are given specific attention in emergency and disaster response planning.
Adapted from materials provided by American Academy of Pediatrics.

Source: http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2007/10/071029121121.htm

Israeli quake may be precursor to disaster

Israeli quake may be precursor to disaster
JERUSALEM, Oct. 14 (UPI) -- A 3.0-magnitude earthquake that rattled Israel Sunday may be a precursor to a much larger quake scientists have predicted for the region.
While Sunday's earthquake in Israel's Jordan rift valley area was minor, as were two other recent temblors in the region, scientists are concerned a larger quake could occur due to a nearby rift, Ynetnews reported.
The Syrian-African rift, known for being volatile, is close to the valley area and therefore the site of the recent earthquakes.
Department of Environmental Sciences and Geophysics scientist Shmuel Marko and Oded Katz of the Geophysical Institute of Israel said in a recent study that such seismic activity appears to indicate a more disastrous quake is imminent.
"We know that the area between the Kinneret and the Dead Sea was subject to several large quakes, in 31 B.C., 362 B.C., 749 B.C. and 1033 A.D.," the pair said in that study. "Another major one is coming soon."

Does Underground Water Regulate Earthquakes?

Does Underground Water Regulate Earthquakes?
Science Daily — Earthquakes happen to be surface (shallow-focus), intermediate and deep ones. Seismologists mark out the boundary between the first two types at the depth of about 70 kilometers, its nature being still unclear.

Russian researchers, specialists of the Institute of Maritime Geology and Geophysics (Far-Eastern Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences), Geophysical Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences and the P.P. Shirshov Institute of Oceanology (Russian Academy of Sciences) have put forward a hypothesis that the seismic boundary is simultaneously the lower boundary of hydrosphere. The earthquakes character depends on underground water.
Earthquakes taking place “at different sides of the boundary” differ from each other not only by the depth. Shallow-focus earthquakes – they account for about 85% of all recorded events - often take place under the influence of periodic external effects, for example, rising tides, which disturb the entire lithosphere of the Earth. Periodicity is not inherent to deeper earthquakes, they always occur by chance. The conclusion was made by the researchers who had analyzed the world ISC/NEIC catalogues data that covers the 1964-2005 period and takes into account about 80,000 events.
Seismologists connect existence of the 70-kilometer boundary with water state changes in the interior of the Earth. The deeper the water molecules are located, the more compressed they are. At the depth of about 70 kilometers, the water compression strain index increases up to 1.3. This is the way water molecules are squeezed in the crystal lattice. Above this boundary, water exists mainly in free phase, below the boundary – water embeds into the rock crystallite composition.
The rock containing free water (above the boundary) promptly reacts to periodic tidal effects, even the faintest ones. Pressure changes and respective environment density changes cause formation of a crack system, where free water rushes to. The cracks widen, increase, and rock decay gives birth to a seismic focus. In the rock, where free water is absent (below the boundary), weak tidal effects are not accumulated and deformation does not grow.
So, the seismic boundary at the depth of about 70 kilometers (where, according to the researchers’ assumption, the lower hydrosphere boundary runs) separates the events that are able to react to external action and the ones incapable of such reaction. Therefore, this boundary separates different types of earthquakes. However, it is still a hypothesis that requires experimental validation.
Note: This story has been adapted from material provided by Russian Academy Of Sciences.

Source: http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2007/09/070915105639.htm

Devastating Earthquake May Threaten Middle East's Near Future

Devastating Earthquake May Threaten Middle East's Near Future, Geologist Predicts
Science Daily — The best seismologists in the world don’t know when the next big earthquake will hit. But a Tel Aviv University geologist suggests that earthquake patterns recorded in historical documents of Middle Eastern countries indicate that the region’s next significant quake is long overdue.

A major quake of magnitude seven on the Richter scale in the politically-fragile region of the Middle East could have dire consequences for precious holy sites and even world peace, says Tel Aviv University geologist Dr. Shmulik Marco. In light of this imminent danger, Marco, from the school’s Department of Geophysics and Planetary Sciences, has taken an historical approach to earthquake forecasting by using ancient records from the Vatican and other religious sources in his assessment. The past holds the key to the future, he says.
“All of us in the region should be worried,” explains Marco, who dedicates his career to piecing together ancient clues.
Based on the translations of hundreds of documents -- some of the originals of which he assumes reside in Vatican vaults -- Marco has helped determine that a series of devastating earthquakes have hit the Holy Land over the last two thousand years. The major ones were recorded along the Jordan Valley in the years 31 B.C.E., 363 C.E., 749 C.E., and 1033 C.E. “So roughly,” warns Marco, “we are talking about an interval of every 400 years. If we follow the patterns of nature, a major quake should be expected any time because almost a whole millennium has passed since the last strong earthquake of 1033.”

Written by monks and clergy, the documents, which span about two millenia, can help determine the location and impact of future quakes on several fault planes cutting through Israel and its neighboring countries, Marco believes. “We use the records, written in churches and monasteries or by hermits in the desert, to find patterns,” he says. Marco credits the help of an international team of historians, who have deciphered the Latin, Greek, and Arabic of the original correspondence.
He continues, “Even if these papers were not ‘officially’ recording history, they hold a lot of information. ... Some are letters to Europe asking for funding of church repairs. And while many of these accounts are told in an archaic religious manner, they help us confirm the dates and location of major calamities. Following these patterns in the past can be a good predictor of the future.”
One of the most cited Christian chroniclers in history upon whom Marco bases some of his conclusions is a ninth-century Byzantine aristocratic monk named Theophanes, venerated today by Catholics. In one manuscript, Theophanes wrote, “A great earthquake in Palestine, by the Jordan and in all of Syria on 18 January in the 4th hour. Numberless multitudes perished, churches and monasteries collapsed especially in the desert of the Holy City.”
While Christian sources helped Marco confirm ancient catastrophes and cast light on future ones, Jewish sources from the Bible also gave him small pieces of the puzzle. A verse in Zachariah (Ch. 14) describes two instances of earthquakes, one of which split apart the Mount of Olives, he says. Muslim clergy have also collected ancient correspondence, which further broadens the picture.
”Earthquakes are a manifestation of deeper processes inside the earth,” Marco says. “My questions and analysis examine how often they occur and whether there is pattern to them, temporally or spatially. I am looking for patterns and I can say that based on ancient records, the pattern in Israel around the Dead Sea region is the most disturbing to us.
“When it strikes and it will this quake will affect Amman, Jordan as well as Ramallah, Bethlehem, and Jerusalem. Earthquakes don’t care about religion or political boundaries,” Marco concludes.

Source: http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2007/10/071003142432.htm

Earthquake that will trigger a Tsunami (2008-2012)

The Sumatra quake in 2004 has increased the probability of similar earthquake under the sea. The impact of a probable earthquake will be more in coast of India than the 2004 quake. The above is the map shoing the probability of the epicentre of the quake in the sea. Red spots are the active volcanos.

Source: World-Wide Earthquake Locator Version 5.1, June 2005© Bruce M. Gittings, 1994-2005, with Alison Story, Edmund Kleiser and Emese CseteURL: http://www.geo.ed.ac.uk/quakes/

Study of Volatile Earthquake Zone

Deep-sea Scientific Drilling Program To Study Volatile Earthquake Zone Launched - Source: Science Daily

The Nankai Trough Seismogenic Zone Experiment (NanTroSEIZE) gets underway September 21, with the Japanese drilling vessel Chikyu departing from Shingu Port with scientists aboard, all ready to log, drill, sample, and install monitoring instrumentation in one of the most active earthquake zones on Earth.

For further details, visit this site
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2007/09/070920173431.htm

Position: Livelihood Officer/Manager

Position: Livelihood Officer/Manager
(Title to be finalized depending on the person's experience).
Organization: Canadian Red Cross-India Delegation, New Delhi

Person specifications:

Preferably MSW;
Experienced in Livelihood program planning, monitoring along with grass-root exposure;
Should be able to direct and support ongoing livelihood programs with a result oriented approach;
A good team player, report writer with ability to deliver to strict timelines under pressure;
Experienced in preparing and using project management tools;
Knowledge of Tamil is a definite advantage;
Experience of working in a multicultural environment/international NGO would be an added advantage

This is a full time, 15 months, Delhi based position, with frequent travel to field (approx 30% of the time)

Respondents could mail resume (mentioning time required to join) to:
irene.stanley@cancrossindia.org
with a copy to thomasjaisons@gmail.com
within a week of the release of this note.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

Irene A. Stanley Project Officer Ì
Canadian Red Cross-India Delegation
No 1. Red Cross Road, New Delhi - 110 001 00-91-9810399633
www.redcross.ca

The potential for giant tsunamigenic earthquakes in the northern Bay of Bengal

This is research paper about the the potential for giant tsunamigenic earthquakes in the northern Bay of Bengal byPhil R. Cummins

do click the link http://npg.nature.com/nature/journal/v449/n7158/full/nature06088.html

Tsunami Warning issued to Andaman and Nicobar

TSUNAMI BULLETIN NUMBER 001PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER/NOAA/NWSISSUED AT 1124Z 12 SEP 2007THIS BULLETIN IS FOR ALL AREAS OF THE INDIAN OCEAN.... AN INDIAN-OCEAN-WIDE TSUNAMI WATCH IS IN EFFECT ...A TSUNAMI WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR INDONESIA / AUSTRALIA / INDIA / SRI LANKA / THAILAND / UNITED KINGDOM / MALDIVES / MYANMAR / MALAYSIA / BANGLADESH / MAURITIUS / REUNION / SEYCHELLES / MADAGASCAR / SOMALIA / OMAN / PAKISTAN / IRAN / YEMEN / COMORES / CROZET ISLANDS / MOZAMBIQUE / KENYA / TANZANIA / KERGUELEN ISLANDS / SOUTH AFRICA / SINGAPORE THIS BULLETIN IS ISSUED AS ADVICE TO GOVERNMENT AGENCIES. ONLYNATIONAL AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT AGENCIES HAVE THE AUTHORITY TO MAKEDECISIONS REGARDING THE OFFICIAL STATE OF ALERT IN THEIR AREA ANDANY ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN IN RESPONSE.AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH THESE PRELIMINARY PARAMETERS ORIGIN TIME - 1110Z 12 SEP 2007 COORDINATES - 4.5 SOUTH 101.3 EAST LOCATION - SOUTHERN SUMATERA INDONESIA MAGNITUDE - 7.9EVALUATION EARTHQUAKES OF THIS SIZE HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO GENERATE A WIDESPREAD DESTRUCTIVE TSUNAMI THAT CAN AFFECT COASTLINES ACROSS THE ENTIRE INDIAN OCEAN BASIN. HOWEVER - IT IS NOT KNOWN THAT A TSUNAMI WAS GENERATED. THIS WATCH IS BASED ONLY ON THE EARTHQUAKE EVALUATION. AUTHORITIES IN THE REGION SHOULD TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION IN RESPONSE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A WIDESPREAD DESTRUCTIVE TSUNAMI.

DUE TO ONLY LIMITED SEA LEVEL DATA FROM THE REGION IT MAY NOT BE POSSIBLE FOR THIS CENTER TO RAPIDLY CONFIRM NOR EVALUATE THE STRENGTH OF A TSUNAMI IF ONE HAS BEEN GENERATED.ESTIMATED INITIAL TSUNAMI WAVE ARRIVAL TIMES AT FORECAST POINTSWITHIN THE WARNING AND WATCH AREAS ARE GIVEN BELOW. ACTUALARRIVAL TIMES MAY DIFFER AND THE INITIAL WAVE MAY NOT BE THELARGEST. A TSUNAMI IS A SERIES OF WAVES AND THE TIME BETWEENSUCCESSIVE WAVES CAN BE FIVE MINUTES TO ONE HOUR.

Another Tsunami likely our generation is going to experience

NEW DELHI: Millions of people living on the Bay of Bengal coast face a tsunami, possibly as devastating as the one in 2004 which killed more than 200,000 people when a 9.3 magnitude earthquake triggered it off Sumatra. Renowned geologist from Geoscience Australia, Phil R Cummins, known to have also predicted the 2004 tsunami, however, claimed that he could not predict the time frame in which such a catastrophic event could happen. In a paper in the journal Nature, Cummins warned that there was a distinct possibility of a quake measuring 8.5-9 on the Richter scale striking the northern region of Bay of Bengal. Quakes of more than 8 magnitude are known to cause such powerful tsunamis. The densely populated coasts of India, Bangladesh and Myanmar would be the most severely hit by such a tsunami if Cummins's prediction comes true. He studied what geologists call the Arakan subduction zone where the Indian and Southeast Asia plates meet. This stretch underlies all the land and water mass from Java and Sumatra to the eastern Himalayas right up to Arunachal Pradesh. A subduction zone refers to a region where, due to several reasons, two plates collide with one plate sliding over the other, causing earthquakes. Current science theories suggest that the subduction is not strong enough in the northern Bay of Bengal region where it weakens because of an oblique movement instead of a 'pure subduction'. But now, Cummins predicts that there is a distinct possibility of such a 'pure subduction'. He backs it up with historical data of tectonic movement from a 1762 earthquake in the Arakan area of Myanmar. But other scientists the world over have taken the paper with a pinch of salt, though terming the paper as a fair warning. R K Chaddha, project leader for seismology at the National Geophysical Research Institute, said.

For more details : http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/articleshow/2342500.cms

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