The study, published November 19 in the early edition of the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), revealed that as temperatures decreased centuries ago during a period called the Little Ice Age, the number of wars increased, famine occurred and the population declined.
Data on past climates may help accurately predict and design strategies for future large and persistent climate changes, but acknowledging the historic social impact of these severe events is an important step toward that goal, according to the study’s authors.
“Even though temperatures are increasing now, the same resulting conflicts may occur since we still greatly depend on the land as our food source,” said Peter Brecke, associate professor in the Georgia Institute of Technology’s Sam Nunn School of International Affairs and co-author of the study.
This new study expands previous work by Associate Professor David Zhang of the University of Hong Kong and lead author of the study.
“My previous research just focused on Eastern China. This current study covers a much larger spatial area and the conclusions from the current research could be considered general principles,” said Zhang.
University of Hong Kong news release
Brecke, Zhang and colleagues in Hong Kong, China and the United Kingdom perceived a possible connection between temperature change and wars because changes in climate affect water supplies, growing seasons and land fertility, prompting food shortages. These shortages could lead to conflict – local uprisings, government destabilization and invasions from neighboring regions – and population decline due to bloodshed during the wars and starvation.
To study whether changes in temperature affected the number of wars, the researchers examined the time period between 1400 and 1900. This period recorded the lowest average global temperatures around 1450, 1650 and 1820, each separated by slight warming intervals.
The researchers collected war data from multiple sources, including a database of 4,500 wars worldwide that Brecke began developing in 1995 with funding from the U.S. Institute of Peace. They also used climate change records that paleoclimatologists reconstructed by consulting historical documents and examining indicators of temperature change like tree rings, as well as oxygen isotopes in ice cores and coral skeletons.
Results showed a cyclic pattern of turbulent periods when temperatures were low followed by tranquil ones when temperatures were higher. The number of wars per year worldwide during cold centuries was almost twice that of the mild 18th century.
The study also showed population declines following each high war peak, according to population data Brecke assembled. The population growth rate of the Northern Hemisphere was elevated from 1400-1600, despite a short cooling period beginning in the middle of the 15th century. However, during the colder 17th century, Europe and Asia experienced more wars of great magnitude and population declines.
In China, the population plummeted 43 percent between 1620 and 1650. Then, a dramatic increase in population occurred from 1650 until a cooling period beginning in 1800 caused a worldwide demographic shock.
The researchers examined whether these average temperature differences of less than one degree Celsius were enough to cause food shortages. By assuming that agricultural production decreases triggered price increases, they showed that when grain prices reached a certain level, wars erupted. The ecological stress on agricultural production triggered by climate change did in fact induce population shrinkages, according to Brecke.
Global temperatures are expected to rise in the future and the world’s growing population may be unable to adequately adapt to the ecological changes, according to Brecke.
“The warmer temperatures are probably good for a while, but beyond some level plants will be stressed,” explained Brecke. “With more droughts and a rapidly growing population, it is going to get harder and harder to provide food for everyone and thus we should not be surprised to see more instances of starvation and probably more cases of hungry people clashing over scarce food and water.”
Source: http://www.gtresearchnews.gatech.edu/newsrelease/climate-war.htm
Thursday, November 29, 2007
Tuesday, November 27, 2007
NGOS IN AFRICA
JOHANNESBURG:
'Let's have a test," challenged a colleague recently in Rwanda, "as to what NGO Landcruiser next arrives in the parking lot. "It was no joke. The parking lot of any upmarket restaurant in any African capital speaks volumes about the neo-imperial game being played out in Africa.
Four-wheel-drive after four-wheel-drive emblazoned with the logo of some donor agency or children's charity jostle for space.
'Let's have a test," challenged a colleague recently in Rwanda, "as to what NGO Landcruiser next arrives in the parking lot. "It was no joke. The parking lot of any upmarket restaurant in any African capital speaks volumes about the neo-imperial game being played out in Africa.
Four-wheel-drive after four-wheel-drive emblazoned with the logo of some donor agency or children's charity jostle for space.
The humanitarians are not hard to spot in person either. Usually white, generally loud, they prefer a shabby-chic uniform of T-shirt, jeans and sandals. But they are more powerful and usually less benign than they appear.
Sitting recently in the Café Bourbon in the smart, new shopping precinct of Kigali opened my eyes (and ears) to some of the implications. "We must just transfer the $8.5 million," rasped the American working for a prominent NGO.
Such money grants them considerable power and influence. The average Rwandan earns $240 per year. The government's annual budget is $650 million. Recent events in Chad over alleged orphan smuggling by an NGO illustrate if nothing else the degree of suspicion such relative power produces. Those sympathetic to the (mostly) young people performing humanitarian roles in Africa argue that they bring much needed skills to deprived Africans. The defense normally adds that they are giving up promising careers and suffering hardship in doing so. What they don't emphasize is the less obvious harm they do. Those previously rendering imperial service suffered hardship, disease and violence. There were no emergency medevacs then, no media to dramatize their service, and no pop stars to campaign on their behalf. And even if these forefathers and mothers promoted polices politically distasteful today, they were more accountable than those in this new quasi-colonial service. The imperial agents of old had at least to answer to parliaments and taxpayers, not self-appointed boards of self-important thought-leaders. But this is not the worst of it. Recently Paris Hilton announced that she was going to be really brave and travel to Rwanda. "I'm scared, yeah," she said. "I've heard it's really dangerous. I've never been on a trip like this before. "She was reportedly planning to "leave her mark" - just like many others before her, supposedly helping Africa while helping themselves. Once there she might have considered a visit to the local Millennium Development Village, an idea to help Africa formulated by the Columbia professor Jeffrey Sachs. Celebrity airhead might meet celebrity economist.
Explaining what motivated her trip, Paris said "There's so much need in that area, and I feel like if I go, it will bring more attention to what people can do to help." If it eventually happens, hopefully the hotel heiress' visit (now officially rescheduled) will be more successful than the village concept by which Sachs wanted to prove his theory that if you give a small unit enough resources then the inhabitants will prosper, a micro-prototype to the "more aid equals African development" thesis. The cost of the "services" rendered by such foreigners is, as ever, borne by Africans. Their actions, fundraising techniques and prominence strengthen the perception that Africa is unable to help itself - both inside and, especially given foreign NGO funding requirements, outside the country. It perpetuates perceptions of helplessness and a victim mentality. At a time when many have realized that African development depends on Africans determining their own policies and making those choices, such actions transfer power and emphasis away from the continent's decision-makers.
Portraying Africa as an object of pity also ignores the very real progress the continent - now in its fourth straight year of six percent GDP growth - has made in ending conflict and raising living standards. What Africa needs is extraordinary economic growth, not extraordinary pity. That is why eventually Africa will tire of this new generation of imperialists, just as it rejected the last lot.
Greg Mills heads the Johannesburg-based Brenthurst Foundation.
Thursday, November 22, 2007
Humanitarian Assistance Often Lacks Needs Assessment
ScienceDaily (Nov. 10, 2007) — The first academic thesis in Sweden on international health assistance in disaster zones is to be presented at the medical university Karolinska Institutet. In his thesis, Dr Johan von Schreeb shows that international assistance is often sent to disaster areas without any prior needs assessment having been made of the affected population.
Dr von Schreeb has carried out needs assessments in a number of disaster situations. He examined the need for international medical assistance after the terrorist action in a school in Beslan, Russia, in 2004, and the low-intensity conflict in the Palestinian territories in 2002. He also studied the use of Foreign Field Hospitals in the natural (sudden impact) disaster zones of Bam (Iran) in 2003, Haiti and Aceh (Indonesia) in 2004 and Pakistan (Kashmir) 2005).
What he discovered was a lack of understanding of people's needs subsequent to the disaster and that international assistance takes inadequate account of existing resources. International field hospitals specialising in life-saving trauma care were dispatched to four areas of natural disaster. Not one arrived within the 48 hours in which lives could still be saved.
If appropriate assistance is to be provided, organisers need access to information about the disaster, the affected area, the size of the population, the socio-economic situation and the available local and regional resources. International donors of humanitarian assistance have jointly decided to distribute the money on the basis of local needs.
There are well-described methods of making needs assessments, but the results are too rarely used. One of Dr von Schreeb's sub-studies examined the extent to which Sida took account of needs assessments in its decisions to fund humanitarian health projects in 2003. Only one third of these decisions contained information about the size of the population to be helped or other factors reflecting their health needs. "My interpretation of this is that it's difficult to provide funding on the basis of needs," says Dr von Schreeb. "Other procedures are needed for having needs govern funding decisions."
During his time as medical coordinator for Medecins Sans Frontieres (Doctors without Borders) in Kashmir, Dr von Schreeb was able to test a new rapid method of gathering needs assessment data in a disaster area. After the 2005 earthquake in Kashmir, he interviewed people at health facilities. His interviewees were geographically representative of the studied population, and the early estimated death and injury toll compared well with the results of a later study in which everyone living in the area was interviewed. "The interviews gave a good, immediate idea of what people needed -- in this case to have their houses repaired before the winter," says Dr von Schreeb.
Thesis: Needs assessments for international humanitarian health assistance in disasters, Johan von Schreeb, Department of Public Health Science, Karolinska Institutet
The public defence of this thesis will be taking place on 23 November 2007 at Karolinska Institutet Campus Solna, Stockholm.
Source: http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2007/11/071109101759.htm
Dr von Schreeb has carried out needs assessments in a number of disaster situations. He examined the need for international medical assistance after the terrorist action in a school in Beslan, Russia, in 2004, and the low-intensity conflict in the Palestinian territories in 2002. He also studied the use of Foreign Field Hospitals in the natural (sudden impact) disaster zones of Bam (Iran) in 2003, Haiti and Aceh (Indonesia) in 2004 and Pakistan (Kashmir) 2005).
What he discovered was a lack of understanding of people's needs subsequent to the disaster and that international assistance takes inadequate account of existing resources. International field hospitals specialising in life-saving trauma care were dispatched to four areas of natural disaster. Not one arrived within the 48 hours in which lives could still be saved.
If appropriate assistance is to be provided, organisers need access to information about the disaster, the affected area, the size of the population, the socio-economic situation and the available local and regional resources. International donors of humanitarian assistance have jointly decided to distribute the money on the basis of local needs.
There are well-described methods of making needs assessments, but the results are too rarely used. One of Dr von Schreeb's sub-studies examined the extent to which Sida took account of needs assessments in its decisions to fund humanitarian health projects in 2003. Only one third of these decisions contained information about the size of the population to be helped or other factors reflecting their health needs. "My interpretation of this is that it's difficult to provide funding on the basis of needs," says Dr von Schreeb. "Other procedures are needed for having needs govern funding decisions."
During his time as medical coordinator for Medecins Sans Frontieres (Doctors without Borders) in Kashmir, Dr von Schreeb was able to test a new rapid method of gathering needs assessment data in a disaster area. After the 2005 earthquake in Kashmir, he interviewed people at health facilities. His interviewees were geographically representative of the studied population, and the early estimated death and injury toll compared well with the results of a later study in which everyone living in the area was interviewed. "The interviews gave a good, immediate idea of what people needed -- in this case to have their houses repaired before the winter," says Dr von Schreeb.
Thesis: Needs assessments for international humanitarian health assistance in disasters, Johan von Schreeb, Department of Public Health Science, Karolinska Institutet
The public defence of this thesis will be taking place on 23 November 2007 at Karolinska Institutet Campus Solna, Stockholm.
Source: http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2007/11/071109101759.htm
'Ultrasound' Of Earth's Crust Reveals Inner Workings Of A Tsunami Factory
ScienceDaily (Nov. 15, 2007) — Research just announced by a team of U.S. and Japanese geoscientists may help explain why part of the seafloor near the southwest coast of Japan is particularly good at generating devastating tsunamis, such as the 1944 Tonankai event, which killed at least 1,200 people. The findings will help scientists assess the risk of giant tsunamis in other regions of the world.
Geoscientists from The University of Texas at Austin and colleagues used a commercial ship to collect three-dimensional seismic data that reveals the structure of Earth's crust below a region of the Pacific seafloor known as the Nankai Trough. The resulting images are akin to ultrasounds of the human body. The results, published in the journal Science, address a long standing mystery as to why earthquakes below some parts of the seafloor trigger large tsunamis while earthquakes in other regions do not. The 3D seismic images allowed the researchers to reconstruct how layers of rock and sediment have cracked and shifted over time. They found two things that contribute to big tsunamis.
First, they confirmed the existence of a major fault that runs from a region known to unleash earthquakes about 10 kilometers (6 miles) deep right up to the seafloor. When an earthquake happens, the fault allows it to reach up and move the seafloor up or down, carrying a column of water with it and setting up a series of tsunami waves that spread outward.
Second, and most surprising, the team discovered that the recent fault activity, probably including the slip that caused the 1944 event, has shifted to landward branches of the fault, becoming shallower and steeper than it was in the past. "That leads to more direct displacement of the seafloor and a larger vertical component of seafloor displacement that is more effective in generating tsunamis," said Nathan Bangs, senior research scientist at the Institute for Geophysics at The University of Texas at Austin who was co-principal investigator on the research project and co-author on the Science article.
The Nankai Trough is in a subduction zone, an area where two tectonic plates are colliding, pushing one plate down below the other. The grinding of one plate over the other in subduction zones leads to some of the world's largest earthquakes.
In 2002, a team of researchers led by Jin-Oh Park at Japan Marine Science and Technology Center (JAMSTEC) had identified the fault, known as a megathrust or megasplay fault, using less detailed two-dimensional geophysical methods. Based on its location, they suggested a possible link to the 1944 event, but they were unable to determine where faulting has been recently active. "What we can now say is that slip has very recently propagated up to or near to the seafloor, and slip along these thrusts most likely caused the large tsunami during the 1944 Tonankai 8.1 magnitude event," said Bangs. The images produced in this project will be used by scientists in the Nankai Trough Seismogenic Zone Experiment (NanTroSEIZE), an international effort designed to, for the first time, "drill, sample and instrument the earthquake-causing, or seismogenic portion of Earth's crust, where violent, large-scale earthquakes have occurred repeatedly throughout history." "The ultimate goal is to understand what's happening at different margins," said Bangs. "The 2004 Indonesian tsunami was a big surprise. It's still not clear why that earthquake created such a large tsunami. By understanding places like Nankai, we'll have more information and a better approach to looking at other places to determine whether they have potential. And we'll be less surprised in the future."
Bangs' co-principal investigator was Gregory Moore at JAMSTEC in Yokohama and the University of Hawaii, Honolulu. The other co-authors are Emily Pangborn at the Institute for Geophysics at The University of Texas at Austin, Asahiko Taira and Shin'ichi Kuramoto at JAMSTEC and Harold Tobin at the University of Wisconsin, Madison. Funding for the project was provided by the National Science Foundation, Ocean Drilling Program and Japanese Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports and Technology.
Source: http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2007/11/071115164101.htm
Geoscientists from The University of Texas at Austin and colleagues used a commercial ship to collect three-dimensional seismic data that reveals the structure of Earth's crust below a region of the Pacific seafloor known as the Nankai Trough. The resulting images are akin to ultrasounds of the human body. The results, published in the journal Science, address a long standing mystery as to why earthquakes below some parts of the seafloor trigger large tsunamis while earthquakes in other regions do not. The 3D seismic images allowed the researchers to reconstruct how layers of rock and sediment have cracked and shifted over time. They found two things that contribute to big tsunamis.
First, they confirmed the existence of a major fault that runs from a region known to unleash earthquakes about 10 kilometers (6 miles) deep right up to the seafloor. When an earthquake happens, the fault allows it to reach up and move the seafloor up or down, carrying a column of water with it and setting up a series of tsunami waves that spread outward.
Second, and most surprising, the team discovered that the recent fault activity, probably including the slip that caused the 1944 event, has shifted to landward branches of the fault, becoming shallower and steeper than it was in the past. "That leads to more direct displacement of the seafloor and a larger vertical component of seafloor displacement that is more effective in generating tsunamis," said Nathan Bangs, senior research scientist at the Institute for Geophysics at The University of Texas at Austin who was co-principal investigator on the research project and co-author on the Science article.
The Nankai Trough is in a subduction zone, an area where two tectonic plates are colliding, pushing one plate down below the other. The grinding of one plate over the other in subduction zones leads to some of the world's largest earthquakes.
In 2002, a team of researchers led by Jin-Oh Park at Japan Marine Science and Technology Center (JAMSTEC) had identified the fault, known as a megathrust or megasplay fault, using less detailed two-dimensional geophysical methods. Based on its location, they suggested a possible link to the 1944 event, but they were unable to determine where faulting has been recently active. "What we can now say is that slip has very recently propagated up to or near to the seafloor, and slip along these thrusts most likely caused the large tsunami during the 1944 Tonankai 8.1 magnitude event," said Bangs. The images produced in this project will be used by scientists in the Nankai Trough Seismogenic Zone Experiment (NanTroSEIZE), an international effort designed to, for the first time, "drill, sample and instrument the earthquake-causing, or seismogenic portion of Earth's crust, where violent, large-scale earthquakes have occurred repeatedly throughout history." "The ultimate goal is to understand what's happening at different margins," said Bangs. "The 2004 Indonesian tsunami was a big surprise. It's still not clear why that earthquake created such a large tsunami. By understanding places like Nankai, we'll have more information and a better approach to looking at other places to determine whether they have potential. And we'll be less surprised in the future."
Bangs' co-principal investigator was Gregory Moore at JAMSTEC in Yokohama and the University of Hawaii, Honolulu. The other co-authors are Emily Pangborn at the Institute for Geophysics at The University of Texas at Austin, Asahiko Taira and Shin'ichi Kuramoto at JAMSTEC and Harold Tobin at the University of Wisconsin, Madison. Funding for the project was provided by the National Science Foundation, Ocean Drilling Program and Japanese Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports and Technology.
Source: http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2007/11/071115164101.htm
Thursday, November 1, 2007
Children At Increased Risk From Effects Of Global Climate Change, Report Says
ScienceDaily (Nov. 1, 2007) — There is broad scientific consensus that the earth’s climate is warming, the process is accelerating, and that human activities are very likely the main cause. Children are often most vulnerable to adverse health effects from environmental hazards because they are not fully developed physically and psychologically.
A new American Academy of Pediatrics (AAP) technical report and policy statement, “Global Climate Change and Children’s Health,” outlines the specific ways global climate change impacts child health, and calls on pediatricians to understand the threats to children, anticipate the impact on children’s health, and advocate for strategies that will lessen the effects.
Direct health impacts from global warming include injury and death from more frequent extreme weather events, such as hurricanes and tornados. For children, this can mean post-traumatic stress, loss of caregivers, disrupted education and displacement. Increased climate-sensitive infectious diseases, air pollution-related illness, and heat-related illness and fatalities also are expected.
As the climate changes, the earth’s geography also will change, leading to a host of health risks for kids. Disruptions in the availability of food and water and the displacement of coastal populations can cause malnutrition, vitamin deficiencies and waterborne illness, the statement said.
“This is a call for us to look at how climate change may be impacted by what we do as an organization, what we do in our personal business and what we do in our home life,” said Helen J. Binns, MD, MPH, FAAP, chair of the AAP Committee on Environmental Health.
The statement encourages pediatricians to be role models for minimizing greenhouse gas emissions by making small changes such as switching to compact fluorescent light bulbs, reducing thermostat settings in the winter and increasing settings in the summer, and using cars less. Pediatricians should make sure their patients understand the air quality index, pollen counts and UV measures used in most metropolitan areas. These conversations can be opportunities to introduce the broader issue of climate change and the importance of reducing carbon dioxide emissions.
The statement also advises pediatricians to advocate and support policies that strengthen public transportation, expand green spaces and reward energy efficiency. It’s also crucial that children are given specific attention in emergency and disaster response planning.
Adapted from materials provided by American Academy of Pediatrics.
Source: http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2007/10/071029121121.htm
A new American Academy of Pediatrics (AAP) technical report and policy statement, “Global Climate Change and Children’s Health,” outlines the specific ways global climate change impacts child health, and calls on pediatricians to understand the threats to children, anticipate the impact on children’s health, and advocate for strategies that will lessen the effects.
Direct health impacts from global warming include injury and death from more frequent extreme weather events, such as hurricanes and tornados. For children, this can mean post-traumatic stress, loss of caregivers, disrupted education and displacement. Increased climate-sensitive infectious diseases, air pollution-related illness, and heat-related illness and fatalities also are expected.
As the climate changes, the earth’s geography also will change, leading to a host of health risks for kids. Disruptions in the availability of food and water and the displacement of coastal populations can cause malnutrition, vitamin deficiencies and waterborne illness, the statement said.
“This is a call for us to look at how climate change may be impacted by what we do as an organization, what we do in our personal business and what we do in our home life,” said Helen J. Binns, MD, MPH, FAAP, chair of the AAP Committee on Environmental Health.
The statement encourages pediatricians to be role models for minimizing greenhouse gas emissions by making small changes such as switching to compact fluorescent light bulbs, reducing thermostat settings in the winter and increasing settings in the summer, and using cars less. Pediatricians should make sure their patients understand the air quality index, pollen counts and UV measures used in most metropolitan areas. These conversations can be opportunities to introduce the broader issue of climate change and the importance of reducing carbon dioxide emissions.
The statement also advises pediatricians to advocate and support policies that strengthen public transportation, expand green spaces and reward energy efficiency. It’s also crucial that children are given specific attention in emergency and disaster response planning.
Adapted from materials provided by American Academy of Pediatrics.
Source: http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2007/10/071029121121.htm
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